Proven where it is proven. Labelled where it is not.
The PBX entry engine replayed on a real MT5 broker's XAU/USD candles from 4 May 2026 to 30 Oct 2026: 5,304 trades, every one net of spread, slippage and $7.00/lot commission.
| Timeframe | Trades | Per day | Win | Avg R (95% range) | Profit factor | Profit @ 0.01 lot | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | 1,500 | 21.2 | 38% | +0.052 ± 0.069 | 1.09 | +$422 | Proven · in Swing + Scalp + M1 |
| M5 | 2,280 | 17.8 | 39% | +0.046 ± 0.064 | 1.09 | +$767 | Proven · in Swing + Scalp |
| M15 | 444 | 3.5 | 20% | +0.161 ± 0.221 | 1.09 | +$473 | Not proven |
| M30 | 220 | 1.7 | 26% | +0.010 ± 0.231 | 1.05 | +$156 | Not proven |
| H1 | 763 | 5.9 | 50% | +0.072 ± 0.076 | 1.17 | +$907 | Proven · in Swing + Scalp |
| H4 | 82 | 0.6 | 44% | +0.067 ± 0.274 | 1.16 | +$330 | Not proven |
| D1 | 15 | 0.1 | 47% | +0.217 ± 0.566 | 1.73 | +$503 | Not proven |
A timeframe is marked Proven only when the entire 95% confidence interval of its average result per trade is above zero — i.e. the profit is too large and too consistent across hundreds or thousands of trades to be luck. Timeframes whose interval still crosses zero are marked Not proven even when their total is positive; we publish them anyway so you see the whole picture.
Before any rule went live it was selected on the first 70% of the available history and had to hold up on the untouched last 30%. Rules that failed that test — including every forex and crypto variation tested so far — are not traded.
- Real MT5 broker candles (bid), not indicative or aggregated prices
- Recorded spread on entry, slippage on both sides, measured commission per lot
- Fills at the next candle's open after the signal candle closes
- Stop checked before target inside every candle; moved stops effective from the next candle
- One position per timeframe, reversal on an opposite signal, 240-candle timeout
- Fixed lot the whole way — no compounding
Historical simulation on broker candles, not live fills. Live results can differ and past performance does not guarantee future results.
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